Natural gas markets fell significantly initially on Wednesday, but then turned around to show signs of life, breaking back above the trend line. The 50 day EMA above is significant resistance, so it should be paid close attention to. If we can break above that 50 day EMA which is currently sitting at the $1.85 level. A break above the 50 day EMA allows the market to go looking towards the $2.00 level. The $2.06 level above at the 200 day EMA could be the next target if we do break above that large round number.
NATGAS Video 11.06.20
Looking at this chart, I do recognize that where the bottom of the candlestick formed during the trading session on Wednesday is a significant support level. That is roughly $1.65, and I think it extends down to the $1.60 level. All things being equal, the fact that we have recovered so nicely suggests that the market is trying to form a “rounded bottom.” That of course is a longer-term bullish sign, which makes quite a bit of sense considering that the economy is starting to wake back up after the virus.
Furthermore, there will be a lot of bankruptcies in the United States which should bring down supply somewhat. With that being the case, this is more or less a longer-term play, but I think in the short term we are probably going to try to reach towards two dollars, but it is not necessarily going to be the easiest thing to happen. Ultimately, this is a market that is going to be very noisy, so you will have to probably look at it as a longer-term play.
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